| 中国经济周期波动性弱化成因和经济“软扩张”后的增长趋势 |
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| 引用本文： | 梁国超,刘金全.中国经济周期波动性弱化成因和经济“软扩张”后的增长趋势[J].广西经济管理干部学院学报,2008,20(4). |
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| 作者姓名： | 梁国超 刘金全 |
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| 作者单位： | 吉林大学,数量经济研究中心,长春,130021 |
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| 基金项目： | 吉林大学面向21世纪教育振兴行动计划（985计划） |
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| 摘 要： | 1996年实现"软着陆"后,中国经济经历了一段低通胀或轻微紧缩的蛰伏期,并于2003年开始了新一轮经济"软扩张","软扩张"过程的主要特征是周期波动性弱化和稳定性增强,主要成因在于经济增长方式由总供给驱动向总需求驱动转变、紧缩性调控向稳健性调控的方向转变。进入2008年后,随着通货膨胀压力加大和国内外经济冲击的影响,本轮"软扩张"阶段有可能转入新一轮平稳经济周期。
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| 关 键 词： | 经济周期 经济增长 宏观调控 |
The Reasons of Economic Cycle Volatility Weakening and Growth Trend after the Process of "Soft Expansion" |
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| LIANG Guo-chao,LIU Jin-quan.The Reasons of Economic Cycle Volatility Weakening and Growth Trend after the Process of "Soft Expansion"[J].The Journal of Guangxi Economic Management Cadre College,2008,20(4). |
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| Authors: | LIANG Guo-chao LIU Jin-quan |
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| Institution: | (Jilin University Quantatitive Reasearch Center of Economics; Changchun; 130021 China); |
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| Abstract: | Since the "soft landing" in 1996,China's business cycle has been in the periods of low inflation or deflation,and entered into the "soft expansion" in 2003.We believe that reasons for the realizations of "soft expansion" are the changes from aggregate supply driven growth to the aggregate demand driven growths,and changes from the tightening macroeconomic control to the robust macroeconomic control.Influenced by the pressure of inflation and shocks from inside and outside,the soft expansion will turn into new business cycle after 2008. |
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| Keywords: | business cycle economic growth macroeconomic control |
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