江苏省城市洪涝韧性评价及影响因素研究

基于压力-状态-响应(PSR)框架,构建城市洪涝韧性评价指标体系,并运用基于实数编码加速遗传算法的投影寻踪模型(RAGA-PP)和灰色关联度分析法对江苏省各市洪涝韧性进行总体评价及影响因素分析。结果表明:13个地级市城市洪涝韧性指数由大到小排序依次为南京、苏州、无锡、常州、南通、镇江、徐州、泰州、扬州、连云港、淮安、盐城、宿迁；江苏省城市洪涝韧性呈现明显的两极分化趋势,苏南优于苏北；防汛物资储备调拨能力、公众灾害应急意识、居民人均可支配收入、第三产业占比、人均地区生产总值、排水管网长度和高等院校毕业生数等指标对城市洪涝韧性影响较大。

Research on evaluation and influencing factors of urban flood resilience in Jiangsu Province

Based on the pressure-state-response (PSR) framework, an urban flood resilience evaluation index system was constructed. The overall evaluation and influencing factors of the flood resilience of each city in Jiangsu Province were analyzed by the projection pursuit based on real-coded accelerated genetic algorithm (RAGA-PP) and the grey correlation analysis method. The results show that the flood resilience index of 13 prefecture-level cities in Jiangsu Province is in descending order:Nanjing, Suzhou, Wuxi, Changzhou, Nantong, Zhenjiang, Xuzhou, Taizhou, Yangzhou, Lianyungang, Huai''an, Yancheng and Suqian. The urban flood resistance in Jiangsu Province presents obvious polarization trend, that is, Southern Jiangsu is more resilient than Northern Jiangsu. Among them, indicators such as ability to reserve and allocate flood control materials, public disaster emergency awareness, per capita disposable income, tertiary industry share, per capita GDP, length of drainage network have a greater impact on urban flood resilience.