基于广义虚拟经济视角下的中国居民消费与房价关系研究

根据居民消费理论,一般而言财富增加会促进消费,国外大量经验研究已证实了房价对消费存在正向的作用。但对于中国而言,房价上涨(财富增加)似乎并没有带动消费的增加?这是什么原因呢?我们认为房价上涨不仅有财富效应,也有与之相对应的替代效应(或称为挤出效应),这是因为短期内房价上涨使得人们购房支出增加而挤出日常消费。另一方面,基于广义虚拟经济视角的消费者心理分析也能更好地解释这一现象。本文利用1999-2010年我国的省际面板数据进行估计后发现,在我国,房价上涨会对消费的变动产生显著的负影响。对此,本文认为,这主要是由于替代效应造成的,同时中国以家庭为观念的社会结构也使得人们宁愿挤出日常消费也要承受"房奴"的生活。

The Research Based on the Generalized Virtual Economy Under the Relations of Chinese Residents Consumption and House Prices

According to the theory of consumer spending,in general wealth increase will boost spending,a large study abroad experience also confirmed that the price of consumption has positive role.But for China’s case,house prices rising(wealth increase) did not seem to promoting consumption increase? What reason is this? We think that rising of house prices have not only the wealth effect,also have with the corresponding substitution effect(or called extrusion effect),this is because the short term that makes people purchase prices increased spending squeeze daily consumption.On the other hand,from the perspective of virtual economy based on the generalized analysis can better consumer psychology to explain this phenomenon.This paper uses 1999-2010 in China provinces panel data after estimates that,in China,the prices of the change of consumption will produce significant negative influence.To this,it is mainly because of the substitution effect,China’s family of the concept of the social structure also makes people would rather extrusion daily consumption also want to pursue "mortgage slave" of life.