| 基于WE-GCM的入境旅游城市意象评价指标体系研究——以北京和上海为例 |
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| 引用本文： | 贺晓慧,白凯,卫海燕.基于WE-GCM的入境旅游城市意象评价指标体系研究——以北京和上海为例[J].桂林旅游高等专科学校学报,2011,4(6):68-70,102. |
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| 作者姓名： | 贺晓慧 白凯 卫海燕 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 陕西师范大学旅游与环境学院,陕西西安,710062
2. 陕西师范大学旅游与环境学院,陕西西安710062／北京大学光华管理学院,北京100871 |
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| 基金项目： | 海南省社会科学基金项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 旅游城市意象是旅游研究的核心命题之一,其研究成果对旅游市场拓展具有重要的实证参照意义。以中国两个一级入境旅游城市北京和上海为研究对象,在借鉴学界同仁研究成果的基础上,根据指标选取原则确定了入境旅游城市意象评价指标体系,运用熵权法进行指标权重的确定,并结合灰色关联分析法构建了入境旅游城市意象评价模型。
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| 关 键 词： | 入境旅游 旅游城市意象 熵权法 灰色关联法 |
Grey System Theory GM（1,1）Model and Its Application to Tourism Industry Revenue Forecasting -- Take Hainan Province as an Example |
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| HE Biao,ZHU Lian-xin.Grey System Theory GM（1,1）Model and Its Application to Tourism Industry Revenue Forecasting -- Take Hainan Province as an Example[J].Journal of Guilin Institute of Tourism,2011,4(6):68-70,102. |
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| Authors: | HE Biao ZHU Lian-xin |
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| Institution: | (Hainan University ,Haikou 570228, China) |
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| Abstract: | Scientific forecasting of tourism industry is important to sustainable development of tourism. The grey system theory and GM （1, 1） grey forecasting model are briefly analyzed in thispaper, and combining with the characteristics of the tourism system, grey forecasting model GM （1,1） is applied to the regional tourism industry forecasting. Finally, an example of Hainan Province is taken to illustrate the application of the model with satisfactory results obtained. |
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| Keywords: | grey system theor GM（1 1） model Hainan provinee tourism industry forecasting |
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