基于系统动力学的房地产调控政策动态仿真模型

从供需两个方面综合分析了土地政策、税收政策和金融政策对我国房地产市场的影响路径和传导机理。运用系统动力学分析原理,构建了房地产调控政策动态分析模型,并利用计算机软件进行仿真模拟。对拟实施政策效果进行比较分析的结果显示:土地政策对我国房地产市场的影响最大,税收政策对房地产供给市场的影响比对需求市场的影响大;同时调节利率工具和信贷工具变量,金融政策仍对我国房地产市场的影响不大。最后提出,我国应将调控供给作为调控房地产市场的重点。

Dynamic Simulation Model of Real Estate Control Policy Based on System Dynamics

From the aspects of supply and demand,this paper analyzes comprehensively the impact paths of land policy,tax policy and finance policy on real estate market and their conduction mechanisms.With system dynamics analysis,it establishes a dynamic analysis model of real estate control policy,and then makes a simulation analysis by a computer software.By comparing and analyzing the effects of drawn implementation policies,it obtains the results shown as follows：land policy has the greatest impact on China’s real estate market;the impact of tax policy on the supply aspect of real estate market is more larger than that on the demand aspect;finance policy has not so much impact on real estate market when adjusting the variables of interest rate instrument and credit instrument simultaneously.Finally,it concludes that the supply control should be the focus point of real estate market control.