A Ricardian Analysis of the Distribution of Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture across Agro-Ecological Zones in Africa |
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| Authors: | S Niggol Seo Robert Mendelsohn Ariel Dinar Rashid Hassan Pradeep Kurukulasuriya |
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| Institution: | 1.Basque Center for Climate Change,Bilbao,Spain;2.Research consultant to the World Bank; Research Associate,Yale University,Bilbao,Spain;3.School of Forestry and Environmental Studies,Yale University,New Haven,USA;4.Department of Environmental Sciences and Water Science and Policy Center,University of California,Riverside,USA;5.Development Economics Research Group,World Bank,Washington,USA;6.Department of Agricultural Economics,University of Pretoria,Pretoria,South Africa;7.Center for Environmental Economics for Africa,University of Pretoria,Pretoria,South Africa;8.Energy and Environment Group, Bureau of Development Policy,United Nations Development Programme,New York,USA |
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| Abstract: | This paper examines the distribution of climate change impacts across the sixteen Agro-Ecological Zones (AEZs) of Africa.
We combine net revenue from livestock and crops and regress total net revenue on a set of climate, soil, and socio-economic
variables with and without country fixed effects. Although African crop net revenue is very sensitive to climate change, combined
livestock and crop net revenue is more climate resilient. With the hot and dry CCC climate scenario, average damage estimates
reach 27% by 2100, but with the mild and wet PCM scenario, African farmers will benefit. The analysis of AEZs implies that
the effects of climate change will be quite different across Africa. For example, currently productive areas such as dry/moist
savannah are more vulnerable to climate change while currently less productive agricultural zones such as humid forest or
sub-humid AEZs become more productive in the future.
S. Niggol Seo is the Consultant to the World Bank. |
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| Keywords: | Climate change Economic impacts Agriculture Africa AEZ |
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