城乡居民收入变迁对经济增长影响的实证分析

本文根据1985-2010年的经济数据,利用协整理论、误差修正模型和Granger因果检验等方法对城乡居民收入与经济增长之间的互动关系进行了实证分析。研究表明,从长期来看,农村居民收入与经济增长之间存在长期稳定的双向因果关系,而城镇居民收入与经济增长之间只存在单向的因果关系,而且农村居民收入增长对经济增长的促进作用强于城市居民收入增长带来的作用;短期内农村居民收入增长对经济增长经历了先阻碍后促进的过程,而城市居民收入增长虽不断促进经济增长,但是促进的作用逐渐下降。因此,在持续增加农村居民收入的同时,也要兼顾城市居民收入的增长。

An Empirical Analysis on the Impact from the Income Change of Urban and Rural Residents to Economic Growth

Based on economic data from 1985 to 2010, by using co-integration theory, error correction model and Granger causality test, the article does an empirical analysis of the interaction between urban and rural residents＂ income and econom- ic growth. Studies have shown that there is a long-term stability and two-way causal relationship between the rural residents＂ income and economic growth, while only one-way causal relationship between the urban residents＂ income and rural residents＂ income growth in promoting economic growth is stronger than that of urban residents＇ income growth; In short-term, the rural residents＂ income growth experienced a process of first hindering and then promoting economic growth, however, the urban residents＂ income growth continue to promote economic growth, but the role begins gradually declining. Finally, the article drew a conclusion that the government must also take into account the growth of the income of urban residents while increas- ing the income of rural residents.