技术创新、资本积累与工业化的增长和就业效果

改革以来,中国工业化的一个重要特征是工业部门产出迅速扩张的同时,它吸收的就业增长明显滞后.笔者发展了一个理论模型和相应的统计分析框架,从理论和实证两个方面考察了工业化的两个基本推动力量--技术创新和资本积累对我国工业化进程中产出和就业增长的影响.我们发现,资本积累没有对工业部门产出和就业增长的趋势产生统计上显著的影响,然而,它是推动1990年之前工业部门产出增长以及1978年～2004年间工业部门就业增长的主要力量;技术创新的劳动节约偏向决定了工业部门就业增长明显下降的趋势,并成为1990年以后工业部门产出增长的主导力量.

Technical Innovation, Capital Accumulation, Industrialization Increase and Employment Effect

Since the reform, one feature of China' industrialization is that labor absorption dose not grow as fast as the industrial production. In this paper, a theoretical model and corresponding statistical analysis frame are developed, which are used to examine the effect of the two basic momentums of industrialization, capital accumulation and technical innovation on the growth of production and employment in the course of industrialization of our country. The evidence shows that capital accumulation dose not change the trend of the growth of production and employment, but it contributes mainly to the growth of employment between 1978-2004 as well as the growth of production before 1990; the partial of technical innovation to labor economy determines the falling trend of employment and contributes mainly to the growth of production in industrial sectors after 1990.