我国省际间财政差异趋势与影响因素的实证研究

本文通过1980-2005年间的样本数据,揭示1980年以来我国省际间财政差异的变化趋势,以及这种变化趋势的影响因素.我们的研究表明,在财政收入方面,受地区经济差异加大的影响,1994年以后财政收入差异有扩大态势,而分税制改革有助于缩小省际间财政收入差异.在财政支出方面,1995年以后财政支出差异呈上升趋势,这是地区间经济发展水平差异与分税制共同作用的结果,但是前者的作用远远大于后者.因此,缩小省际间财政差异的途径除转移支付外,还应当主要致力于缩小省际间经济发展水平差异.

An Empirical Study on the Trends and Factors of the Fiscal Disparities among the Provinces

Based on the statistical data of public revenue,public expenditure and GDP of 30 provinces in China from 1980 to 2005,this paper empirically analyses the relationship between the fiscal disparities and economic disparities among provinces,and the tax federalism by the econometric model.The result of this study shows that as far as the public revenue concerned,the economic disparities enhances the fiscal disparities,while the tax federalism helps to reduce it.As far as the public expenditure concerned,the economic disparities and tax federalism all enhance the fiscal disparities,but the former's effect is much greater than the latter's.Therefore,despite of fiscal transfer policy,measures helping reduce the economic gap among provinces should be emphasized to minish the fiscal disparities.