FDI与房价

本文在存量模型基础上，构建了一个外资参与的房地产市场局部均衡模型，考察了外资对房价的影响。理论模型显示，需求环节外资流入将导致房价上涨，开发环节外资流入将导致房价下降。本文使用中国35个大中城市1996-2010年的房地产市场和FDI数据，发现开发环节外资（FDI）对中国大中城市房价具有显著负向影响。另一方面，FDI与房价的影响是非对称的，FDI对房价的影响大于房价对FDI的影响。因此，为抑制高房价，在对需求环节外资（“热钱”）严格限制下，应鼓励外资进入房地产开发。此外，收入是影响房价的最主要因素；城市化越快，房价越容易上涨。

FDI AND HOUSE PRICE

Based on stock model, this paper developed a partial equilibrium model of real estate market combined with foreign invest to illustrate the impact of foreign invest on house price. The theoretical model showed that foreign investment inflow in demand side would cause house price increase, while foreign investment inflow in supply side would render house price decline. Employing the real estate price and FDI data of Chinese large and medium cities over the period 1996-2010, this paper found that FDI negatively affects the house price. On the other hand, the impact of FDI on house price was greater than that of house price on FDI. Accordingly, in order to prevent house price from bubble, the policy-makers were supposed to not only strictly restrict “hot money” in demand aspects, but also facilitate foreign investment flux into real estate development. In addition, household income was the paramount determinant in house price variation.The faster did the city urbanize, the faster the house price would increase.