我国资本外逃规模估测方法综述

简要回顾了国内外对资本外逃的研究历史,详细阐述了我国资本外逃规模估测的直接测量法和间接测量法,并对两种方法的相关性进行了分析,进而说明了对两种测算方法的调整.尽管各种方法估测出的结果有所差异,但不可否认我国存在严重的资本外逃,必须防止大规模的资本外逃.

Review of capital flight measurement of China

It has been more than 60 years since the concept of "capital flight" was born, whereas, our research on it only begins after the Southeast Asian Economic Crisis. It is the crisis that made us understood the capital flight and the negative effects it brought. Domestic research on capital flight begins at the end of last century. In the latest period, people's attention to the capital outflow has gradually shifted to the capital inflow for the reason of people's expectation of RMB appreciation. However, a great deal of research has found that the increase of capital flight is a comparatively stationary process which is little affected by the exchange rate. In this way, further study on capital flight still has its realistic sense.