产业政策扶持对企业金融资产配置——基于“五年规划”变更的自然实验

以产业政策“五年规划”的变更构建双重差分与中介效应检验，分析了政策扶持对企业“主观投资意愿”和“客观投资机会”的双重影响，以及在两种影响的共振作用下，如何进一步影响企业金融资产配置决策的微观逻辑。研究发现：产业政策扶持对企业金融资产配置具有显著促进作用。一方面，产业政策扶持不仅会通过融资约束缓解效应提升企业投资意愿，还会通过庇护效应提高企业风险容忍度、强化风险承担，从而进一步提升“主观投资意愿”。另一方面，政策扶持引发投资潮涌会恶化市场竞争、政策前瞻性及其社会价值性，又对企业短期经济价值产生抑制，从而导致企业“客观投资机会”下滑。最终，企业在客观投资不确定性加剧而主观投资意愿上升的共振作用下选择转向具有替代性的金融资产投资。异质性方面，主业投资机会、主业经营收益率和主业经营风险越高的企业增加金融资产投资的意愿更弱，说明企业进行金融资产配置更像是锦上添花，而非根本上的“脱实向虚”。

Industrial Policy and Corporate Financial Asset Allocation——Evidence from the Natural Experiment of Five-Year Plan’s Change

This paper analyzes the dual effects of policy support on “subjective investment intention” and “objective investment opportunity” by constructing Difference-in-Difference and intermediary effect test based on the change of the “Five Year Plan” and how they resonantly further influence the micro logic of enterprise financial asset allocation. The study finds that industrial policy support has a significant role in promoting the allocation of corporate financial assets. On the one hand, industrial policy support can not only enhance the enterprise's investment willingness through the mitigation effect of financing constraints, but also improve the enterprise's risk tolerance and strengthen the risk bearing through the sheltering effect, so as to further enhance the “subjective investment intention”. On the other hand, the investment surge caused by policy support will worsen market competition, policy foresight and social value, and inhibit the short term economic value of enterprises, which will lead to the decline of “objective investment opportunities”. Finally, under the resonance effect of increasing objective investment uncertainty and increasing subjective investment willingness, enterprises choose to invest in alternative financial assets. In terms of heterogeneity, the enterprises with higher investment opportunity, better operating income and higher risk of main business have weaker willingness to increase financial assets investment, which indicates that enterprises' allocation of financial assets is more like icing on the cake, rather than fundamentally “turning from real to virtual”.