The Changes in World Oil Prices, Monetary Factors, and Foreign Index Toward Composite Index Movement： Indonesian Case for the Period of 2005-2011

Capital market is one of the drivers of the economy through the formation of capital investor excess as well as an indicator of a country＇s economy. Movement of stock price index is often influenced by many factors, derived from the company＇s performance, monetary factor, and changes in world oil prices. This study highlights the problem in world oil prices due to political turmoil in the Middle East. The samples are taken from the Jakarta Composite Stock Price Index （JCI）, oil prices, Indonesian inflation rate, Certificate of Bank Indonesia＇s （CBI） rate, and the reserve assets, during the period from January 2005 to December 2011 （84 months）. Using the data published by the Bank of Indonesia, reports of the Central Bureau of Statistics （Biro Pusat Statistik, BPS）, and other relevant sources, the data analyzed through the Eviews 7.1. The main objective of this study is to examine the effect of oil prices, foreign stock price index, and monetary variables （inflation rate, CBI rate, country＇s foreign reserves, and others） toward the JCI analyzed through the error correction model （ECM）. Hypothesis testing with the F-test for the 95% confidence level indicates that the oil price, exchange rate （Indonesian Rupiah （IDR）/United States Dollar （USD））, CBI rate, foreign exchange reserves, the Dow Jones Index, and the Taiwan stock index, both simultaneously as well as partially have a significant influence on the JCI.