Retirement Age Considerations for Central Europe

The paper analyzes the arguments for and possible consequences of an increase in the statutory retirement age in central Europe, including the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia. The analysis reflects the current and projected demographic and economic developments, and discerns the long-term trends from the specific aspects of transition. As for the long-term trends, the paper offers a simple framework for calculation of the intergenerational transfers through pensions under different reform scenarios. The calculations confirm that, in the aging central European societies, down-sizing of the existing pay-as-you-go schemes, including an increase in the statutory retirement age, is necessary to sustain solvency and intergenerational fairness in the public provision for retirement. The paper argues, however, that proposals to increase the retirement age in central European countries need to enhance their assessment of the possible counter-productive effects, which may arise due to the low working ability, poor health status and high occupational and environmental risks faced by the population.