A CGE analysis of the impact of trade liberalization between the U.S. and Mexico

This study examines the effects of free trade between the U.S. and Mexico on the sectoral trade balance of the U.S. The empirical findings indicate that free trade would benefit the overall trade balance of the U.S., but the benefit will be small in the near to medium term for two reasons. First, there is a huge disparity between the economic sizes of the two countries. Second, a sizable share of Mexican exports already enter the U.S. under the Generalized System of Preferences (GSP) or at low rates under maquiladora production-sharing arrangements. The relatively low tariff rates already in effect allow most of the benefits of trade between the U.S. and Mexico to be realized and therefore limit the potential benefits to the U.S. from free trade.