重估人民币汇率升值对中国经济的影响——基于2005年汇改以来的经验证据

反思人民币汇率十年争论,大多围绕"外部施压——内部被动反应"的逻辑展开,人民币汇率陷入升值"恐惧症"。本文以经验数据实证分析人民币汇率各种争论的理论逻辑。研究表明,人民币升值并没有导致通货紧缩,人民币升值也没有促使就业下降,相反,人民币升值还伴随经济过热及就业持续增加;同时,人民币升值无助于改善国际收支平衡和贸易条件、人民币升值引起热钱流入的观点都缺乏经验的支持。因而,人民币升值"恐惧症"的理论逻辑值得重新审视,中国开放宏观政策选择有必要跳出被动应对怪圈,这对促进当前中国经济结构调整及可持续发展的政策选择具有重要意义。

Rethinking the Phobia of the Appreciation of RMB Exchange Rate

The debates on the RMB exchange rate in recent ten years were mostly around the logic of "External pressure——Internal passive reaction",which has caused the debate to fall into the "Phobia" about the appreciation of the RMB.This paper intended to identify the real logic of the "Phobia" based on the empirical data and found some important results.Firstly,the appreciation of RMB did not lead to the deflation and the rise of the unemployment rate in China.Secondly,there were no indications to show that the appreciation of RMB helped to improve external imbalance and trade condition.Finally,we should reconsider the "Phobia" behind the appreciation of the RMB and adjust the related policy positively.