我国的出口商品结构与经济增长——加入WTO前后的比较分析

本文利用1995～2010年的季度数据对我国加入WTO前后出口商品结构与经济增长之间的关系进行了比较分析。协整检验显示,在中国加入WTO之前,初级产品出口、工业制成品出口与经济增长间均为正向相关;加入WTO之后,初级产品出口与经济增长为负相关,工业制成品出口与经济增长则为正相关。格兰杰因果检验则显示,在加入WTO前后,初级产品出口、工业制成品出口与经济增长都互为因果。实证分析结果说明,随着我国加入WTO,我国的外贸环境日益改善,出口商品结构不断优化,这对经济增长产生了很大的推动作用;而经济的持续高增长反过来又极大地促进了出口总量的提高以及出口商品结构的进一步优化。

Export Composition and China's Economic Growth:A Comparative Analysis on the Periods before and after the Accession to WTO

In this paper we utilize the data of 1995~2010 and present a comparative analysis on different export sectors and their possible relationship with the China′s economic growth for the period before and after China′s accession to WTO.The two singular periods characterized by the important change of strategy for China′s trade policy are 1995Q1~2001Q4 and 2002Q1~2010Q4.The cointegration test results suggest that for the 1995Q1~2001Q4 period,output and exports of primary goods and manufactures are positively correlated.For the 2002Q1~2010Q4 period,the relationship between output and exports of primary goods is no longer positive but negative,output and exports of manufactures are still positively correlated.According to the results of Granger casualty tests,we can observe bidirectional causation between economic growth and every single export sector during two periods.Empirical analysis shows that,with China′s accession to WTO,the trade environment and export composition are improving increasingly,which generates a great impetus to economic growth.The sustained economic growth greatly enlarges the export volumes and promotes the improvement of the export composition in turn.