| 省域城市化水平预测方法比较--以北京市为例 |
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| 引用本文： | 任建明,孙晖.省域城市化水平预测方法比较--以北京市为例[J].城市问题,2006(3):15-19,38. |
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| 作者姓名： | 任建明 孙晖 |
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| 作者单位： | 清华大学公共管理学院 |
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| 摘 要： | 以北京市为例,分别用考虑当期经济发展水平的回归模型、考虑滞后因素的PDL模型、考虑极限上值的Lo-gistic模型,预测其2004年-2008年的城市化水平.在比较三种模型特点的基础上得出我国不同省域进行城市化水平预测的方法建议.
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| 关 键 词： | 城市化 人均GDP 指数平滑 |
| 文章编号： | 1002-2031(2006)03-0015-05 |
| 修稿时间： | 2006年2月17日 |
A forecast of regional urbanization process in China: exemplified by Beijing |
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| REN Jian-ming,SUN Hui.A forecast of regional urbanization process in China: exemplified by Beijing[J].Urban Problems,2006(3):15-19,38. |
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| Authors: | REN Jian-ming SUN Hui |
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| Institution: | REN Jian-ming SUN Hui |
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| Abstract: | Three models including the regression model which consider the current economic development level , the PDL model which considers the lag factor, and the Logistic model which considers the upper limit, are used separately to forecast the urbanization level of Beijing from 2004 to 2008. In comparing the three models, methods and suggestions for forecasting the urbanization levels of different provinces and regions in China are obtained. |
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| Keywords: | PDL Logistic |
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