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Histogram-based prediction of directional price relatives
Authors:Oriol Roch
Affiliation:Dept. Matemàtica Econòmica, Financera i Actuarial, Universitat de Barcelona, Barcelona, Spain
Abstract:A model of directional prediction of price relatives is proposed following the histogram-based scheme developed in Györfi et al. (2006). This methodology allows us to exploit potential information contained in multivariate series of price relatives. The impact of the model is studied from the perspective of an economic agent through the use of double linear loss functions. A numerical example with real data is presented to illustrate the model.
Keywords:Directional prediction  Return sign dependence  Asymmetric loss  Exchange rates
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