A Scenario-Based Assessment Model—SBAM |
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Authors: | Victor A Banuls [Author Vitae] |
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Institution: | University Pablo de Olavide Ctra. de Utrera km.1, 41013 Seville, Spain |
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Abstract: | Scenario generation methods have often been used by policy makers as an instrument to manage the uncertainty of the technological environment and to support the shaping of long-term technology policies. Although scenario generation methods are conceptually useful in the shaping of long-term technology policies, the literature suggests that there is a methodological gap between the two. In an effort to bridge this gap, the authors propose a Scenario-Based Assessment Model (SBAM). This work introduces the principles and methodological basics of the SBAM. Moreover, an example is given to illustrate how this model can be applied. |
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Keywords: | Scenario assessment Analytic Hierarchy Process Cross-Impact Method Delphi Method Technology Foresight |
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