"整体均衡、局部过热"之实证分析及宏观调控决策建议

本文通过实证分析认为,目前我国经济的“过热”并非整体经济之过热,而是“局部过热”,其根源在于房地产市场的不规范引发的错误的市场预期及固定投资宏观调控之不足,倘不及时加以控制必将导致资源的浪费和地产泡沫,对于我国经济结构的调整及经济的良性发展具有极大的负面作用。建议在我国市场经济不发达的情况下,通过加强政府管制及引导规范经济行为,促进国民经济持续稳定地增长。

Integral Equilibrium and Partially Over-heated Economy:Empirical Analyses and Suggestions on Macro Adjustment

The authors argue that the over-heated economic growth is developing partially rather than integrally by making some empirical analyses. Partially over-heated economy originated from the mistaken market expectation due to the disorder in the real estate market and the lack of the macro adjustment of mixed investment. It leads to the waste of resources and collapsible development of real estate, which has an extremely negative impact on the adjustment of economic structure and favorable development of economy. It is proposed that we should strengthen the governmental constraint and standardize the economic behaviors to promote the sustainable growth of national economy under the condition of less developed market economy.