制度因素与贸易的边界效应

本文将制度变量纳入McCallum模型,在前人基础上提出规范研究的"贸易制度假说";据此,通过我国2000-2004年进出口数据和国内贸易估算数据,进行FGLS和Tobit回归,基本验证了先前的假说。结果认为我国贸易的边界效应在样本期内出现下降的趋势,制度因素可以解释2000-2004年间我国出口边界效应下降的56.8%。

Institution Factor and the Border Effect of Trade

By bringing institutions variable into McCallum model,this paper introduces"The Hypothesis of Trade Institutions",which is based on the analysis of the present paper.Through the FGLS and Tobit methods,the data of China's international and intra-national trade were obtained to estimate border effect.The results verify the pre-hypothesis and it's reported that the border effect of China's trade dropped significantly,and the 56.8% of which can be explained by institution variable during 2000-2004.