中美经济发展与中国货币政策有效性

本文对美国经济与中国主要宏观经济变量之间的相关性进行了定量研究,实证分析了1993～2007年中美经济发展对中国货币政策传导机制和效果的影响。通过要素增强型向量自回归模型的实证研究发现,中美两国经济关系呈现出高度的协同性,而且这种相关程度随着中国经济开放的深化变得更加明显。中美经济交流和互动对中国货币政策传导机制和效果产生了明显影响,主要表现为美国因素强化了中国货币政策的产出效应。随着中美经济关系的发展,汇率效应在中国货币政策传导机制中的作用日益增强,而利率效应逐渐减弱。

China-US Economic Development and Monetary Policy Effectiveness in China

The paper quantifies the correlations between US economic factor and China′s macroeconomic variables,and analyze the influences on the monetary policy transmission mechanism and effectiveness over the 1993～2007 periods.It does a empirical analysis by estimating a factor-augmented vector autoregressive model,and finds that there is high degree of comovements across China and US,and the correlations become statistically stronger as China′s economy is more open.The interactions between China and US produce important influences on the monetary policy transmission mechanism and effectiveness in China,which leads to a rise in output effect of monetary policy in the short run.Moreover,interest rate effect is rising up in the monetary policy transmission mechanism,while exchange rate effect is declining with the deepening relationships between China and US.