中俄转型时期经济波动差异及其原因分析

通过转型解决资源配置的效率问题从而实现经济的持续稳定增长是中俄两国推动市场化经济转型的基本诉求。对转型过程中的经济增长波动及其原因进行分析有助于我们加深对经济转型的理解。本文运用H-P滤波法对1992～2010年中俄两国的经济波动进行定义,并分离出3个显著的波动差异时段,进而对产生这种差异的原因进行了分析。结论认为,俄罗斯更大的经济波动和中国相对平稳的增长态势源于两国吸收和延缓外部冲击能力的差异,更深层次的原因要在两国的经济结构和市场制度结构中寻找。

Differences of Economic Fluctuations and its Reasons for China and Russia in Transition Period

Settlement efficiency of resource allocation questions for economic growth is the fundamental appeal for China and Russia to promote market-oriented economic transition.An analysis on reasons for the fluctuations in economic growth during transition can help us better understand the economic transition.It uses H-P filtering method to define the China and Russia′s economic fluctuations from 1992 to 2010,and separates three distinct stages to analyse the difference.The conclusion is that the differences are the absorption and the delay capacity of external shocks,which conduce to Russia′s larger economic fluctuations and China′s relatively steady growth.And more profound reasons are in the economic structure and market institutional structure.