证券市场机构违法违规均衡概率分析

近几年来，证券市场普遍存在的违法违规现象极大地挫伤了中小投资者的积极性。通过对证券市场参与主体行为进行经济学模拟，建立证监会和机构混合博弈模型，可得出均衡违法违规概率。此外，通过对均衡概率决定因素的定性分析，指出均衡违法违规概率偏高及其原因来自于证券市场不合理的博弈规则。

Analyzing the Puzzles of Unlawful Practice in Secutiy Market

The prevalent and severe unlawful practices in the security market in China have discouraged the small and medium investors greatly. The paper makes economic simulation on the behavior of participants in security market and establishes a combined game model on China securities regulatory commission and the institutions to find the balanced unlawful probability. Furthermore, the paper also analyzes the determinants of balanced probability and finds that the balanced unlawful probability is comparatively high and the reason is the unreasonable game rule in the security market.