双边贸易、外汇市场规模、网络外部性与美元的国际地位——基于国别(地区)市场的实证研究

美元堪称世界的"霸权"货币,其地位的维持要借助在位货币的优势和外力支持,本文通过面板模型对美元国际地位的影响因素进行了实证分析。在静态面板模型中发现,一国(地区)同美国的实际进出口贸易额、一国(地区)外汇市场规模对美元的国际地位均产生重要的正面影响,这表明一国(地区)与美国的实际进出口贸易额越大或一国(地区)外汇市场越发达,该国(地区)对美元的需求量越大。随后的动态面板模型不仅支持了上述结论,而且发现前一期外汇市场的实际货币交易量也是影响美元充当主要国际货币的重要因素,一国(地区)前一期外汇市场的实际货币交易量越大,其越青睐于持有美元,美元在该国(地区)的地位就越高。这一结论证实了网络外部性效应所发挥的重要作用。

Relationship Between Bilateral Trade,Exchange Tarket Size,Net Externality and the USD’s Leadership:An Empirical Panel Analysis Using the Data by Market Countries or Regions

As the most important currency in the world,the USD’s leadership’s decline will be a long historical process.A static panel model and a dynamic panel model are constructed to analyze the determinants of USD’s status in this article.The results told us two variables(bilateral trade and exchange market size) are important positive determinants.Foreign exchange market trading volume of the last period also is a powerful driver of USD’s leadership.It means that the larger foreign exchange market trading volume of the last period is,and the more possibility USD can be accepted in a given market.The evidence in this article thus leads to the conclusion that net externality acts as an important determinant of USD’s leadership.