粮食价格波动对主产区福利影响的实证分析

基于粮食主产区1978—2009年粮食生产与消费的相关数据,在对粮食供给弹性和需求弹性估计的基础上,运用Minot福利效应模型,分析粮食价格波动引致主产区福利变化及其影响。结果表明:主产区生产福利变动与粮食生产价格变动具有同向作用关系,而消费福利变动与粮食零售价格变动具有负向作用关系;粮食价格变动引起主产区福利变化的长期福利效应优于短期福利效应,但整体效果不明显。

Empirical Analysis of Welfare Effects of Grain Price Volatility in Main Producing Areas

Based on grain production and consumption-related time series data of 1978-2009 in China's main producing areas,grain supply elasticity and demand elasticity are estimated.The Minot welfare effects model is used to analyze welfare changes and their impacts caused by grain price volatility.The results show that:In the main producing areas,production welfare changes and grain price changes have positive relationship while consumption welfare changes and retail grain price changes have negative effects;Long-term welfare effects caused by grain price changes are better off than short-term welfare effects in the main producing areas,but the overall effects are not obvious.Finally,some regulation policies of grain price in the main producing areas are put forward.