| 香港经济周期波动的经验分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 张应武.香港经济周期波动的经验分析[J].国际经贸探索,2008,24(12):40-45. |
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| 作者姓名： | 张应武 |
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| 作者单位： | 中山大学岭南学院,广东广州510275 |
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| 摘 要： | 通过采用滤波技术得到香港经济周期波动的数据,在此基础上归纳出香港经济周期波动的特征,并分析了总需求变量与产出的周期波动关系.研究发现,香港产出波动周期长度为7.8年左右,且周期波动具有非对称性和弱可预见性.总需求波动中的投资、进出口和消费是顺产出波动的,基本具有一致的周期长度,是香港产出波动的主要原因,香港政府开支对产出波动没有影响.
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| 关 键 词： | 经济波动 滤波 总需求 |
An Empirical Analysis of Hong Kong's Economic Cycle Fluctuations |
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| ZHANG Ying-wu.An Empirical Analysis of Hong Kong''s Economic Cycle Fluctuations[J].International Economics and Trade Research,2008,24(12):40-45. |
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| Authors: | ZHANG Ying-wu |
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| Institution: | ZHANG Ying-wu(Sun Yat-sen University,Guangzhou 510275,China) |
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| Abstract: | Gaining the data of Hong Kong's fluctuations via filter,this paper sums up the characteristics of Hong Kong's economic fluctuations,and analyzes the connection between aggregate demand variables and cycle fluctuations. The results showthat the cycle periodic extent ofHongKong's output is 7.8 years,and the cycle fluctuation is dissymmetricalandweaklypredictable. Investment,importsandexportsand consumption areconsistentwith theoutput fluctuation and are the leading reason for the output fluctuation in Hong Ko... |
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| Keywords: | economic fluctuation filter aggregate demand |
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