信息技术对经济高质量发展的影响——兼论从模仿创新到自主创新

遵循新发展理念,构建基于“双循环”发展新阶段的中国经济发展质量指标体系,通过测算2003-2017年中国经济发展质量综合指数及信息通讯技术（InformationandCommunicationTechnology,简称ICT）生产性资本存量,运用中介效应、动态门槛效应模型对ICT资本结构变化点及其推动经济高质量发展的影响机制进行分析。研究发现：ICT资本深化作用明显,ICT资本每增加1%,经济发展质量将提升2.8%~3.6%;从传导机制看,技术扩散效应、人才配置效应和自主研发效应是ICT资本推动经济高质量发展的重要渠道。其中,技术扩散和人才配置起非线性调节作用,随着技术扩散和人才配置越过门槛值,ICT资本对经济发展质量的影响呈现出倒U型特征,但人才配置位于倒U型左侧。该结论表明,当技术扩散越过对经济发展质量正向影响的临界值时,ICT资本积累将成为经济发展质量阻碍因素。通过揭示中国经济亟需从模仿创新向自主创新转换的内在逻辑,为促进内循环经济投资及经济高质量发展提供有益参考。

Analysis of the Impact of ICT on the Economic Growth Quality: from Imitation Innovation to Independent Innovation

This paper uses 2003-2017 provincial panel data to evaluate the impact of ICT capital on the quality of economic development(EGQ).The mediation effect and dynamic threshold effect models identifies the transmission mechanism of ICT capital influencing EGQ. The study found that ICT plays a significant role in capital deepening in EGQ. As far as the transmission mechanism is concerned, the diffusion effect of technological innovation, innovative talent allocation and independent R&D are important channels for ICT capital to improve EGQ. Among them, technology diffusion and talent allocation also have a non-linear adjustment effect. As technology diffusion and talent allocation cross the threshold, the impact of ICT capital on EGQ presents an inverted U-shaped characteristic, but the allocation of talent is still in the inverted U-shaped on the left. This feature shows that when the current technology diffusion has crossed the critical value of the positive effect on EGQ, the accumulation of ICT capital will become a hindrance to EGQ, and the Chinese economy urgently needs to switch from imitation innovation to independent innovation.