最优再保险的期权博弈分析

期权博弈理论把期权定价和博弈论结合起来分析在连续时间和不确定性下的动态多人决策问 题。本文运用这种方法首先分析了超额损失再保险的期权特性,用期权定价技术为其定价,然后构建一个 完全信息动态博弈模型分析了原保险人和再保险人的最优策略和均衡结果,给出了无套利条件下的最优超 额损失再保险。与传统精算及其它经济分析文献不同,在此框架下得到的最优再保险保费体现了市场因 素,并反映了利益冲突的保险主体之间顺序动态决策的事实。

Optimal Reinsurance Based on Game Theory Analysis of Options

The method of game theory analysis of options combines option pricing model and game theory,and is used to analyze the problem of dynamic multiperson decision in continuous time and under uncertainty.Using this method ,this paper first analyzes the option property of excess-of-loss reinsurance,and evaluates it by option pricing technique,then in a dynamic game theory model with complete information analyzes the optimal strategies of both o-riginal insurer and reinsurer as well as the equilibrium result,thus we give the optimal excess-of-loss reinsurance under the conditions of no arbitrage.Unlike the traditional actuarial and other economic literature,the optimal reinsurance premium gained under the frame of option game embodies the market element and reflects the fact that insurance agents with conflicted interests make decisions dynamically and by order.