基于实物期权的城市供水PPP项目投资决策分析

为解决城市供水PPP项目中实物期权的价值合理界定问题,通过分析城市供水PPP项目的期权特性,采用二叉树实物期权定价模型对项目中隐含的期权进行定价,并运用模糊综合评价法对项目的复合期权价值加以完善,建立城市供水项目的价值评估模型,完善了传统的城市供水项目价值评估方法,并通过案例分析,验证了将实物期权法引入到价值评估中有助于合理界定城市供水PPP项目的不确定性价值,准确反映项目的实际价值,从而为投资者提供有效的决策依据。

Investment decision analysis of PPP projects of urban water supply based on real options

In order to solve the problem of the reasonable definition of real options in PPP projects of urban water supply, the features of the options are analyzed according to the basic theory of real options. The binary tree option pricing model is used to make a price for the implicit option of the projects. The fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is used to improve the value of the compound options of PPP projects, and an evaluation model for the value of urban water supply projects is established. Therefore, the traditional evaluation methods for urban water supply projects are improved. Through case studies, it is validated that the real option method is helpful to reasonably define the uncertain value of PPP projects of water supply, and it further reflects the real value of the projects so as to provide more effective decision-making for the investors.