跨界流域水资源冲突的脆性与评价

基于复杂系统脆性理论,定义了跨界流域水资源冲突脆性概念,分析了冲突脆性源及脆性激发过程。运用突变级数法,构建了跨界流域水资源冲突脆性评价指标体系和评价模型,并对漳河流域水资源冲突脆性进行评价,提出了降低脆性的对策建议。研究表明:跨界流域内不同区域的水资源冲突脆性,不同地区的各子系统的冲突脆性,以及各地区的不同子系统的冲突脆性,均表现出异质性。要降低流域和地区的水资源冲突脆性,需要流域机构和地方政府的共同努力,从社会子系统、环境子系统、经济子系统、管理子系统等方面同时入手。流域管理机构应致力于建立流域整体水资源冲突脆性协调与控制机制,区域地方政府则应更新发展理念,加强与其他区域之间的共赢合作。

Brittleness andevaluation of water conflict in transboundary river basin

Based on the brittleness theory of complex system, the concept of conflict brittleness of transboundary water resources is defined, and the sources of conflict brittleness and the process of brittle excitation are analyzed. By means of the catastrophe progression method, the evaluation index system and the evaluation model for the conflict brittleness of water resources in transboundary basins are established. The conflict brittleness of water resources in Zhanghe River basin is evaluated, and the countermeasures and suggestions are put forward to reduce the brittleness. The results show that the conflict brittleness of water resources in different areas of the transboundary basin, the brittleness of each subsystem in different regions and the conflict brittleness of different subsystems in each region all exhibit heterogeneity. To reduce the conflict brittleness of water resources in basins and regions, the joint efforts of the basin administrative agency and the local governments are required from the social subsystem, environmental subsystem, economic subsystem and management subsystem. The basin administrative agency should devote itself to the establishment of conflict brittleness coordination and control mechanism of water resources in the whole basin, and the regional local government should renew its development concept and strengthen the win-win cooperation with other regions.