An Early Assessment of Residential Mortgage Performance in China |
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Authors: | Email author" target="_blank">Yongheng?DengEmail author Della?Zheng Changfeng?Ling |
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Institution: | (1) School of Policy, Planning and Development, University of Southern California, 650 Childs Way, RGL 201A, Los Angeles, CA 90089-0626, USA;(2) School of Policy, Planning and Development, University of Southern California, 650 Childs Way, Los Angeles, CA 90089-0626, USA;(3) Real Estate Research Institute, Tsinghua University, Heshanheng Building #201, Beijing, 100084, PR, China |
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Abstract: | The residential mortgage market becomes a financial engine for the booming residential housing development and sustained economic growth in China. Our study provides the first rigorous empirical analysis on the earlier performance of residential mortgage market in China based on a unique micro dataset of mortgage loan history collected from a major residential mortgage lender in China. We found that while the option theory fails to explain prepayment and default behavior in the residential mortgage market in China, other non-option theory related financial economic factors play major roles in determining the prepayment and default risks in China. We also found that borrower’s characteristics are significant in determining prepayment behavior, hence may be used as an effective tool for screening potential high risk borrowers in the loan origination process. Adopting a risk-based pricing in residential mortgage lending in China can improve the efficiency of the market, and enhance the credit availability to the most needed households, i.e., the younger households, blue-collar workers, lower income households, and help them become homeowners. |
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Keywords: | Chinese mortgage market prepayment and default empirical hazard model econometric analysis |
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