国际油价波动对经济增长的影响——基于中国的实证分析

基于1990年1月至2009年3月的月度数据,本文实证分析了我国经济增长与国际石油价格之间的长期变动关系,其特点在于,采用稳健性较强的T-Y因果检验来分析油价与经济增长的Granger因果关系,同时,运用非对称协整技术以考察油价与经济增长之间的非线性关系。研究发现：①长期中油价是我国经济增长的单向Granger原因;②油价与我国经济增长之间存在非对称协整关系,油价上涨对经济活动的负面影响大于油价下跌的积极影响。基于中国经济运行的实际,本文还分析了实证结果背后的原因,并提出当前国际金融危机背景下,油价呈下跌趋势,需抓住有利时机,动用外汇储备,大力购入石油资源,建立起石油战略储备;在经济复苏、油价上涨时,可以启动石油战略储备来减少石油供应冲击,从而有助于及时保证我国经济平稳快速增长的政策建议。

The Impact of the International Oil Prices's Volatility on Economic Growth——An Empirical Study from China

This paper uses empirical analysis to study the long-term relationship between oil prices and China＇s economic growth for the period from January 1990 to March 2009. A feature of this paper is that it uses the long-run Granger causality test proposed by Toda and Yamamoto to investigate Granger causal relationship between oil price and economic growth. Meanwhile,this paper also uses an approach based on asymmetric cointegration to investigate nonlinearity relationship between the two variables. Our main findings are as follows：① In the long run,International oil price has the Granger causality to the economic growth in China; ② There is evidence for asymmetric cointegration between oil prices and economic growth. An oil price increase has more impact on economic growth than an oil price decrease. Based on China＇s economic situation,this paper also analyses the reasons behind the empirical results,and gives the corresponding policy implications：Under the present international financial crisis background,oil prices have decline tendency,we should take advantage to use foreign exchange reserves to buy oil resources and establish a strategic reserves of oil; With economic recovery,oil prices are rising,we can launch a strategic reserves of oil to reduce the impact of oil supplies,which helps to ensure that our economy can grow stably.