中国宏观经济分析面临新挑战

正如中国经济发展正处于十字路口 ,中国的宏观经济调控面临转型的重要关口一样 ,中国的宏观经济理论也正面临严峻的挑战。本文通过宏观态势分析中两个不同思路即规范性宏观分析思路和宏观问题感受性分析思路的比较 ,发现规范性宏观分析虽然权威和简明 ,但是在诊断中国宏观问题时缺乏准确性 ;宏观问题感受性分析虽然准确全面 ,但是缺乏学术性提炼。中国宏观经济理论为了承担起向宏观调控政策提供思想基础这一基本任务 ,必须寻找宏观经济中真正具有典型化的事实 ,分析这些事实之间的内在联系及其对宏观经济走向的影响 ,进而重新梳理中国宏观经济关系 ,重建中国的宏观经济分析理论体系。

New Challenge Facing Macroeconomic Analyses of China

Macroeconomic theory in China is faced with a serious challenge that opposite policy suggestions proposed by two main groups of economists belonging to new classical macroeconomics and pro-macro-problem analysis. The former gives incorrect diagnoses to the overheat of Chinese economy though it seems sophisticated and concise to policy. The later can provide right and practical analyses but short of systematic and consistency. In order to fulfill the fundamental goal of building a thinking base for the decision of macroeconomic policy, the macroeconomic theory in China need search for a series of real stylized facts in China and clear up the inner relationships among them and consequently set up a brand new system of Chinese macroeconomic analyses.