The Effects of Uncertain Divestiture as Regulatory Threat

It has been argued that the threat of regulatory intervention affects firm behavior. We investigate the pricing decision of the dominant firm under regulatory threat, considering the probability of intervention as a function of the price. Our focus is on the case where the potential divestiture of the firm serves as a threat of regulatory intervention. It is shown that under certain conditions associated with the marginal expected penalty, the mere threat of divesting a certain portion of the firm’s manufacturing plants leads to a lower price than the actual divestiture of that same portion. Numerical examples illustrate that with relatively small-scale divestiture, the firm’s price under the threat may be lower than that under the actual divestiture, within a relatively broad range of regulator’s attitudes toward intervention.