从“库存变化”看“后危机”时期宏观经济走势

库存变化反映了市场需求预期和企业生产状况,也反映了宏观经济景气的变化。2008年下半年以来,世界各国在金融危机的影响下和经济周期的调整中完成了＂去库存化＂。伴随着经济回暖,欧美等贸易伙伴大国均处于不同程度回补库存阶段,其补库存过程对稳定我国出口市场、经济恢复产生不同程度的影响。目前我国库存随着经济稳步回升、需求回暖处于存货周期的小扩张阶段,这意味需求进一步回暖,宏观经济稳步回升态势进一步显现。

On Macroeconomic Trends in the Post-crisis Period From the Perspective of Changes of Inventories

The changes of inventories reflect the expectation of market demand and enterprise’s production conditions.It also reflects the trend of macroeconomic development.Since the third quarter of 2008,the Global economy has completed the ＂ inventory adjustment＂ under the influence of the financial crisis and the adjustment of the business cycle.With the recovery of economy,the United States,Europe and other trading partners are under the stage of covering inventory at different speed.It will be helpful to stabilize the China’s exports market and economic recovery.At present,with steady recovery of economic demand,inventories of enterprises are in the small expansion stage of the inventory cycle in China.It will have a positive impact on economy.