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Alternative Modelle und Hypothesen der Konsum- und Sparentscheidung(1)
Authors:Egon Smeral
Abstract:Summary For the analysis of the allocation of personal disposable income to the different consumption goods and savings, an ldquoindirect-addilog-expenditure-systemrdquo (IAES) has been constructed. Compared to the ldquolinear-expenditure-systemrdquo (LES) the IAES to far more flexible and is not based upon the idea of minimum-consumption- or minimum-saving-quotas. On the other hand, marginal income shares are not fixed parameters. The IAES allows the derivation of a ldquosystematicrdquo savings- and consumption-function and supplies consistent income elasticities. But it will be shown that consistent demand systems are only restrictively able to consider all major determinants of the decision-problem consumption or saving. The derived system does not only neglect the effects of wealth on consumption and savings but also the results of real income fluctuations due to the business cycle. Also phenomena like unemployment and uncertainties regarding estimates of the future or inflation are neglected. With the help of an ldquoadjustment-procedurerdquo a part of these disadvantages has been eliminated. The ldquoadjustmentrdquo with regard to the entire private consumption and savings supplied income elasticities which lead to an almost constant consumption- and savings-share in the period under investigation.
Keywords:
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