安徽省农业绿色发展水平动态预测及路径研究

目的]在农业供给侧结构性改革背景下,农业绿色发展是必然要求。安徽省作为农业大省,研究其农业绿色发展水平和演化规律具有重要借鉴意义。方法]为科学测度安徽省农业绿色发展水平并研究其动态发展路径,构建了安徽省农业绿色发展评价指标体系,以2015年度为初始年进行了评价。将动态规划理论拓展到区间直觉模糊集,利用区间直觉模糊集的可能度函数、得分函数和互补判断矩阵建立了区间直觉模糊动态规划模型,融和安徽省农业委员会"十三五"工作重点,对其农业绿色发展水平进行了动态预测并给出了最优发展路径。结果]通过模型计算,到2020年,安徽省农业绿色发展水平最优状态为"中等",未来5年的工作重点依次为:第一年应该加大高标准农田建设、中间两年应加大农业科技装备投入,后两年应该注意产业结构调整的同时,继续加大农业科技装备投入。结论]建立的评价指标体系能客观反映安徽省农业绿色发展水平,区间直觉模糊动态规划模型能够对安徽省农业绿色发展路径提供科学指导和建议。

STUDY ON DYNAMIC PREDICTION AND PATH OF GREEN DEVELOPMENT LEVEL OF AGRICULTURE IN ANHUI PROVINCE

Under the background of agricultural supply side structural reform, the agricultural green development model is an inevitable request. As a major agricultural province in China, it is of great significance to study the level and evolution of Anhui province agricultural green development. In order to scientifically measure the level of green development of agriculture in Anhui province and study its dynamic development path, the evaluation index system of green development of agriculture in Anhui province was constructed. The existing level of development was evaluated with the year 2015 as the initial year. The dynamic programming theory was extended to the interval valued intuitionistic fuzzy set, the possibility degree,score function and the complementary judgment matrix were used to establish the interval valued intuitionistic fuzzy dynamic programming model. Anhui province agriculture green development level and the optimal path of development could be computed by the modelfocusing on the 13th Five Year Plan of Anhui Agricultural Committee. Through calculation, the optimal level of agricultural green development level in Anhui province in 2020 is "middle", and the priorities for the next five years should be as follows:inthe first year, the construction of high standard farmland should be vigorously invested; in the second two years, the input of agricultural science and technology equipment should be increased; and the last two years, the adjustment of industrial structure should be highly valued as while as the input of agricultural science and technology equipment should be increased continuously. The established evaluation index system can objectively reflect the level of green development of agriculture in Anhui province, and interval intuitionistic fuzzy dynamic programming can provide scientific guidance and suggestions.