农产品产量与收购价格的因果关系检验

近几年,中国农产品产量一直徘徊不前,通过引入市场竞争提高农产品收购价格,刺激农民务农积极性,一直被视为解决“三农”问题的有效途径之一。基于此,对农产品产量与收购价格进行实证检验极为必要,本文使用格兰杰因果方法检验八种农产品的产量与价格之间的因果关系,结果表明,产量基本不会影响收购价格,粮食、油料、干鲜果、水产品的一阶滞后收购价格与其产量有因果关系,其余农产品的收购价格与产量的因果关系不明显。

A Granger Causality Test on Chinese Agricultural Products Output and Purchasing Price

In recent years, the output of Chinese agricultural products has been fluctuating. The increase of agricultural productpurchasing price in order to stimulate farmers' enthusiasm in farming has been considered as an effective way to solve the problem of “agriculture, countryside and farmer”. For this reason, it is extremely necessary to examine the empirical relationship between agricultural products and their purchasing price. This paper conducts examination into the causality relationship between the products and the purchasing price by the means of the Granger causality test on eight kinds of agricultural products, and the result indicates that basically, the output will not influence the purchasing price, that the onestep lag purchasing prices of the grain, oil, dry and fresh fruit, aquatic products have causality relationship with their outputs, and that this causality relationship between the other products and their purchasing price is not obvious.