未来25年全球政府债务展望:对经济和公共政策的影响

文章探讨了主要经济体以及全世界的长期财政前景。文章认为,如果当前的税率或政府的退休和卫生保健惠民工程没有发生变化,未来25年政府债务规模将在大多数发达经济体和许多新兴经济体中增长到危险和不可持续的水平。虽然对于主要的经济体来说,在经济增长不出现任何大的、出乎意料的负面震荡的情况下,危险区很可能还比较远,大约会发生在今后10～25年时间内,但如果允许政府债务继续增长,利率最终将上升,从而挤出生产性投资,降低经济增长率。严重的经济下滑有可能迅速推动政府债务水平上升到危险区间,并极大地增加爆发危机的可能性。因此,政策制定者现在就应该开始计划进程,将政府债务调整到可持续的轨道。当前计划中的预算削减应该延迟到2013～2015年执行,额外的预算削减措施也应该从2016年开始实行。此外,应该立刻在控制退休和医疗成本方面达成一致,认真解决这个威胁到增长的问题。

The Global Outlook for Government Debt over the Next 25 Years:Implications for the Economy and Public Policy

This article explores the long-run fiscal outlook for key economies and the world overall.If there are no changes in current tax rates or government benefit programs in retirement and health care,the government debt will grow to dangerous and unsustainable levels in most advanced and many emerging economies over the next 25 years.For the major economies and the world more broadly,in the absence of any large and unexpected negative shock to economic growth,the danger zone is likely to be relatively far into the future,about 10 to 25 years ahead.However,if government debt is allowed to grow continually,interest rates eventually will rise,crowding out productive investments and slowing down the rate of economic growth.A serious economic downturn in the future could quickly push government debt levels more rapidly into the danger zone and greatly increase the chances of a crisis.So,policymakers should begin the process now of planning for an adjustment to a sustainable path for government debt.Accordingly,we propose that budget cuts currently being planned should be implemented in 2013-15 and that additional budget cuts should begin in 2016.In addition,reaching agreement to curb retirement and medical costs should be made as soon as possible,so as to deal with a problem that threatens to grow more serious in the next two or three decades.