中国经济增长机理解释——基于投入产出SDA方法

笔者利用结构分解方法(SDA),将中国1987年～1997年以及1997年～2007年期间的经济增长分解为基于产业角度的需求扩张效应、增加值率变动效应和技术进步效应,并测算出不同效应对经济增长的贡献率。研究结论表明,1987年～2007年期间,中国经济增长的机理发生了深刻变化,由单一依靠需求扩张转变为依靠需求扩张、增加值率变动和技术进步协调拉动。这显示出中国经济增长的稳健性逐步增强,经济增长的质量和效益逐步提高。由于中国经济增长仍有较大空间,笔者最后提出了相应的政策建议。

The Explanation of the Mechanism for Chinese Economic Growth——Based on Input and Output SDA Model

With structural decompose analysis(briefed as SDA),the author decomposed Chinese economic growth between the periods of 1987-1997 and 1997-2007 into three effects:demand expansion effect from the industrial perspective,value added ratio effect and technical progress effect and calculated their contribution rates to economic growth.Empirical analysis indicates that the period of 1987-2007 sees great changes in the driving mechanism of Chinese economic growth,shifting from single reliance on demand expansion to coordination of demand expansion,value added ratio improvement and technical advancement.This study suggests that stability of Chinese economic growth as well as its quality and efficiency has been gradually enhanced.As Chinese economic growth still has great potential,the author finally put forwards relevant suggestions for making policies.