外汇市场深度、网络外部性与美元的国际地位——基于分国别与地区面板数据的实证研究

尽管美元的未来存在不确定性,但从现况来看尚无任何货币具备超越美元的实力,对美元地位的短期走势并不能作出简单的判断.作者运用面板数据模型对美元国际地位的影响因素进行了实证分析.结果表明,一国外汇市场的发达程度对美元国际地位的确定产生了重要的正面影响:一国外汇市场越发达,其越青睐于持有美元；另外在动态面板数据模型中,前一期外汇市场的实际货币交易量也是决定美元国际地位的显著因素,并且前-期外汇市场的实际货币交易量越大,该国对美元的需求量越大.这一结论证实了网络外部性效应的存在.

Foreign Exchange Market Depth,Network Externality and the International Status of USD——An Empirical Research Based on the Panel Data of Different Countries and Regions

Though the future of USD is uncertain,no other currency has more strength than USD now and the short-term trend of USD can’t be judged simply.The authors used panel data model to analyze the determinants of USD’s international status.The results show that the foreign exchange market depth of a country has important positive effect on the establishment of the international status of USD:the more developed the foreign exchange market of a country,the more it favors USD;in addition,in the dynamic panel data model,the actual currency volume of trade in the foreign exchange market in the former period is also an obvious factor determining the international status of USD.Furthermore,the more the actual currency volume of trade in the foreign exchange market in the former period,the more the need for USD in the country.The conclusion proved the existence of the effect of network externality.