粮食生产弱质性及其经济效应

现有文献大多是定性地分析粮食生产弱质性的原因,并把弱质性视为粮食生产永恒不变的特性。笔者以相对劳动生产率系数作为粮食生产弱质性的测量指标,计算分析了1978年以来我国粮食生产弱质性程度的变化趋势及其对经济增长和经济结构转变的影响。研究发现,我国粮食生产弱质性程度的长期变化趋势取决于国家经济结构转型战略,局部波动则主要由政府粮食政策的调整引起;粮食生产弱质性程度与粮食生产经济拉动效应中度负相关;粮食生产弱质性与第一产业比重高度负相关,与第二产业比重没有显著线性相关关系,与第三产业比重高度正相关;粮食生产弱质性对我国经济增长和经济结构调整都有较为显著的影响。

Weakness of Grain Yielding Industry and Its Influence on National Economy

Most of the current literature focus on qualitative analysis of the reasons for the weakness of grain yielding industry and consider weakness as the unchangeable attribute of grain yielding industry.The author used relative labor productivity coefficient as the indicator of the weakness of grain yielding,calculated and analyzed the trend of the change in the weakness of grain yielding industry in China since 1978 and its influence on economic growth and economic structure transformation.The findings show that the long-term trend of the weakness of grain yielding industry in China is mainly determined by national structural transformation strategy and its local fluctuation is affected by the adjustment of national grain policy;the degree of the weakness of grain yielding industry is moderately negatively related to the pull effect of grain yielding on economy;the weakness of grain yielding industry is highly negatively related to the proportion of the primary industry,has no significant linear correlation with the proportion of the second industry,and is highly positively related to the proportion of the tertiary industry.The weakness of grain yielding industry has significant influence on the economic growth and economic structure adjustment in China.