全球变暖背景下云南省橡胶林潜在适生区的预测及变化

目的 揭示全球变暖对云南省橡胶林适生区的影响，为云南橡胶产业的健康发展提供一定的参考及支持。方法 文章以云南省橡胶林物种分布数据，气候、地形、土壤等环境变量数据为基础，运用最大熵模型（MaxEnt），确定对云南省橡胶林分布有显著影响的主导环境因子，分析当代气候条件下云南省橡胶林适生区的分布特征，并预测未来气候变暖对云南省橡胶林适生区分布的影响。结果 （1）对云南省橡胶林分布有显著影响的主导环境因子共5项，以12月平均最高气温（51.2%）居首，其余4项依次为5月平均降雨量（10.2%）、年降雨量（9.4%）、坡度（8.8%）、1月最低气温（8.5%）。（2）云南省橡胶林适生区集中分布于西双版纳、德宏和临沧等地区，红河、普洱和保山亦有零星分布，总适生区约占云南国土面积的5.32%，且总体上，高适生区（1.44%）居中，其外侧环绕中适生区（1.25%），再外侧环绕低适生区（2.63%）。（3）RCP4.5、RCP8.5情景下，云南省橡胶林总适生区面积均呈增加趋势，分别达到云南国土面积的13.96%、19.04%，高排放情景下的增幅更加明显。（4）两种排放情景下橡胶林总适生区的质心均沿西南—东北方向，向海拔和纬度更高的无量山、哀牢山方向迁移，且高排放情景下迁移距离更远。结论 气温变化对云南省橡胶林适生区分布影响显著，在气候变暖的情况下，橡胶林适生区面积趋于更大，且质心朝着高海拔、高纬度地区移动。在考虑气温作为主导因子的情况下，橡胶林的种植区可进一步向高海拔、高纬度区域扩展。

PREDICTION OF POTENTIAL SUITABLE AREA FOR RUBBER FOREST IN YUNNAN PROVINCE AND CHANGE UNDER THE GLOBAL WARMING

To reveal the impact of global warming on rubber forest suitable areas in Yunnan province, the dominant environmental factors affecting the distribution of rubber forest in Yunnan province were determined by using the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model, which based on the species distribution data of rubber forest in Yunnan province and data of environmental variables such as climate, terrain, and soil. Then, the distribution characteristics of rubber forest suitable areas in Yunnan province under contemporary climate conditions were analyzed, and the impact of future climate warming on the distribution of such areas was predicted. The results showed that five dominant environmental factors had a significant impact on the distribution of rubber forest in Yunnan province, with highest average temperature in December (51.2%) ranking first, followed by average rainfall in May (10.2%), annual rainfall (9.4%), slope (8.8%), and lowest temperature in January (8.5%), respectively. At present, the suitable areas of rubber forest in Yunnan province were concentrated in Xishuangbanna, Dehong, Lincang and also scattered in Honghe, Pu''er and Baoshan. The total suitable area was approximately 5.32% of the land area of Yunnan. In general, high suitable areas (1.44%), medium suitable areas (1.25%), low suitable areas (2.63%) were distributed from inside to outside. Under the RCP4. 5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, the total suitable area of rubber forest in Yunnan showed an increasing trend, reaching 13.96% and 19.04% of the land area of Yunnan respectively, and the increase in high emission situation was more obvious; the center of the total suitable area of rubber forest migrates along the southwest-northeast direction to Wuliang Mountain and Ailao Mountain, with higher altitude and latitude, and the migration distance was longer under the high emission scenario. Therefore, change of temperature have a significant impact on the distribution of areas suitable for rubber forest in Yunnan province. Under the condition of climate warming, the suitable area for rubber forest tends to be larger, and the centroid moves toward high-altitude and high-latitude areas. Because air temperature is the most important factor, planting areas of rubber forest can expand further into such areas.