中国出口增长的三元边际

本文首创了贸易增长的三元分解框架,并且利用1995-2004年六分位贸易数据,将中国出口增长分解为广度增长、数量增长与价格增长,在此基础上利用非参数技术研究了中国出口增长模式.结论发现:中国出口产品价格低、数量高;从增长看,数量增长速度最快,广度增长速度次之,两者共同成就了中国出口的迅速增长;价格对出口增长几乎没有贡献;这一结论对于不同技术、不同数据是稳健的.

The Three Margins of China's Export Growth

Basing on 6-digit trade data,we decompose China's export value into three margins:extent,quantity and price,to analyze China's export growth pattern.We arrive at the following conclusions:the price of China's export is low,and quantity is high;from the growth perspective,quantity growth is the fastest,extent growth is the second,which together lead to China's export growth.This conclusion is robust to different subsets of data and different methods.