人民币国际化：路径、前景与方向

本文从人民币国际化的国内外环境入手，提出基于货币职能的人民币国际化渐进路径。以经验模型为基础，研究表明若全方位国际化将推动人民币在官方储备、国际清算和国际债券的存量和流量上快速提升，但近期很难冲击美元地位。面对广阔前景，本文强调未来人民币国际化与国内改革的协调与相互配合，积极参与国际市场和国际治理，建设跨境渠道和发挥香港离岸市场作用等方向同时推进。

THE INTERNATIONALIZATION OF RENMINBI: DEVELOPMENT,PROSPECTS AND ORIENTATION

In the background of global economic crisis and fast growing of China, this paper built a route of the internationalization of Renminbi on the monetary function. The empirical models suggested that the flowing and stock of Renminbi in official reserve, international settlement and international debt securities market would grow fast. However, it was difficult to shake the position of US dollar. Under the broad prospects, the internationalization of Renminbi could be promoted in three areas. The first was to improve the reform of economic and financial system, build a positive interaction between the reform and internationalization. The second was to improve the involvement of Renminbi in both international market and international governance. The third was to build the linkage between on shore and off shore market by enlarge the cross border tunnels and develop Hong Kong off shore market.