“十三五”期间我国经济——能源——环境系统变量发展预测

本文以动态可计算一般均衡模型为基础，2010年投入产出表延长表为基准数据，对“十三五”期间我国经济--能源--环境系统相关变量进行了预测。分析结果显示：“十三五”期间我国经济将实现新常态下的稳定适宜增长，GDP增速保持在65%左右，产业结构进一步优化，第三产业比重明显上升，第二产业明显下降。由于经济增长的原因，能源消费总量与碳排放总量依然较高，但能源消费结构进一步优化，碳排放强度明显降低，节能减排的形势依然比较严峻。

China's Economy-Energy-Environment System Variables Development Analysis during the Thi rteenth Five -Year Plan

The paper analyzes economy -energy-environment system variables based on dynamic computable general equilibrium model and 2010 input-output table during the thirteenth Five -Year Plan . The results indicate that China's economy will achieve new nor-mal stable suitable growth , GDP growth rate remains at about 6.5% during the analysis period . The economy structure has further opti-mization , the proportion of the third industry will increase significantly , and the second industry will decrease significantly . As the cause of economic growth , the energy consumption and carbon emissions are still relatively high , but the energy consumption structure will further optimize , carbon emission intensity decreases significantly . The situation of energy saving and emission reduction is still grim .