关于国际石油价格波动原因的深入思考

2004年以来,国际石油价格呈现大幅上涨和剧烈波动态势,深入考察国际石油价格波动原因对于促进世界经济增长和稳定具有重要现实意义。从内在动因、长期影响因素和短期波动直接原因3个方面进行综合分析,得出结论:稀缺性、供需在空间上分离、需求价格弹性小、金融属性逐渐增强等因素构成国际石油价格波动的内在动因;霍特林法则的作用、原油储采比的变化、强劲的需求增长、脆弱的供求平衡等是国际石油价格波动的长期影响因素;OPEC减产、石油库存波动、战略因素影响、美元贬值、投机因素影响则是国际石油价格短期波动的直接原因。

Reflection on the Reasons for the Fluctuation of International Oil Prices

Since 2004,international oil price goes up and down dramatically.Reflection on the reasons of the fluctuation is very important for the world economic growth and economic stability.This study mainly analyzes the reasons from three aspects that include underlying factors,long-term factors and short-term factors.The results indicate that scarcity,separated demand and supply,a small price elasticity of demand,gradually increased financial property constitute underlying causes of fluctuations;the role of Hotelling rule,crude oil reserve-production ratio,strong demand growth,a fragile balance of supply and demand are long-term causes of fluctuations;OPEC cutting production,oil stocks fluctuation,strategic factors,depreciation of the dollar,speculation factors are direct cause of short-term fluctuations.