中国宏观经济形势与政策:2003—2004年

中国经济景气在2003年继续其2002年以来的扩张倾向,全年GDP增长率将接近9%,并且将在2004年完成从经济萧条到经济繁荣的经济周期形态转换。21世纪上半叶, 中国经济将继续保持高速增长的历史趋势,核心通货膨胀率将处于较低水平。在当前经济扩张的初级阶段,中国宏观经济管理应该采取适度扩张的财政政策与货币政策,建立以增加国内投资需求为轴心的需求管理政策体系,促进国民经济持续快速增长,并且在此基础上实现增加就业、保持结构平衡和维护人民币汇率稳定的多重政策目标。

CHINA'S MACROECONOMIC SITUATION AND POLICIES: 2003-2004

In 2003, China's economy sustains its expanding propensity since 2002, and real GDP is anticipated to grow at the annual rate of about 9 % . The business condition will fulfil its cyclical transformation from economic depression to economic prosperity in 2004. Furthermore, the first 2 decades of the 21st century will witness the historical trend of both high potential GDP growth and low core inflation. At the initial stage of economic expansion, China's macroeconomic management should continue implementing the moderately expansionary fiscal and monetary policies, and construct the policy combination around the axis of increasing domestic investment demand, to enhance the lasting and rapid economic growth in 2004 and in the future. As the natural effects of economic growth, the multiple targets of increasing employment, balancing economic structure and stabilizing exchange rate will be realized meanwhile.